In the field of stock market investment and active trading, it is crucial to adopt a rigorous approach based on proven principles or backtesting. However, this does not preclude adding more anecdotal elements as complementary information. Today, I am sharing a great example that suggests a probable interim peak for the S&P500 in the coming weeks.
Last week, Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, announced that he would no longer provide target prices for the S&P500, considering this exercise futile. He justifies his decision by the concentration of the 10 largest stocks, which represent 37% of the index's weight, and the lack of contribution from the majority of stocks over the past two years.
At the same time, we learned that Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Strategist at JP Morgan, will be leaving his position after 19 years with the financial institution. He pays the price for his prediction of a 25% drop in the S&P500 this year, with a target of 4200 points for 2024.
In summary, with the S&P500 trading near 5600 points, it is interesting to see one financial strategist abandon the practice of setting target prices, while another seems to have lost his job due to his pessimism.
The aim of this publication is to stay alert to any relevant information that could enhance your analysis.
Wishing you a great weekend!
Sources:
Alexandra Semenova. "JP Morgan’s Kolanovic to Exit Amid String of Poor Stock Calls," Bloomberg, July 3, 2024.
Connor Smith. "Why This Strategist Is Done Offering Targets for the S&P 500," Barron’s, July 3, 2024.
I'm wondering, how do you see these two examples as a possible suggestion of an interim peak, and is there some other anecdotal data you tend to keep an eye on?
I remember one of the Top Traders Unplugged episodes aired a couple of years ago with Kolanovic as a guest. My take was that his thinking was quite a contrarian, with strong points of view and paths how things are evolving. This period, when things are shifting constantly with heightened anomalies outcomes, may be problematic if the actual decisions reflect tight opinions in a strict way. Nevertheless, predicting a 25% drop in this kind of election year is quite daring and rich, I say 😅
I'm glad that somebody…