top of page
Writer's pictureVincent D.

Is the Market Giving the All Clear for a Year-End Rally?

A few days before the election, we received a risk index signal and exited the market. Much of this risk was associated with the upcoming US election, where polling data showed both candidates neck and neck. However, as you all know, the actual vote revealed that it was not a close race at all, and Donald Trump and the Republican Party won by a considerable margin. This victory instantly triggered a Bitcoin rally, followed the next day by the market. This outcome was predictable and one we were comfortable with when we decided to exit the market. I believe the stock market could have thrived in various areas of strength regardless of who won, but our hypothesis at WU was that the market dislikes uncertainty. The worst scenario for the market would have been either a tight election result with prolonged suspense related to recounts, similar to 2000, or a contested outcome like in 2020. With Trump winning and Harris conceding, the election was decisively concluded, prompting the market to rally.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to thewealthumbrella.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

21 comments

Related Posts

See All
bottom of page